The
$1,000 gold fan club? Absolutely. And, as far as fan clubs go, this
one's membership is swelling daily. There's no question that the number
of financial analysts who see gold topping the $1,000 mark have
suddenly become as common as Tom Brady touchdown passes. But whether
these folks are newcomers to the gold bandwagon or have been riding
confidently along for years, it's remarkable just how many analysts now
see nothing but good for gold.
Here, for example, is what a few $1,000 gold prognosticators have to say...
o The Falling Dow/Gold Ratio.
The Dow/Gold Ratio - the number of gold ounces it takes to buy one
share of the Dow Jones Index - has fallen from 42 in 2000 to nearly 19
in 2007. "What is interesting," said analyst Dr. Marc Farber, "is that
despite the stock market's rebound since October 2002, the Dow/Gold
Ratio has continued to decline. Simply put for the holder of gold - the
world's only honest currency, since it cannot be printed by some
dishonest central banker - the Dow, although it increased in value in
dollar terms, has continued to decline in gold terms with the result
that, today, it 'only' takes 20 ounces of gold to buy one Dow Jones
Industrial Average.
"Simply put, since 2000, gold has risen at a
much faster clip than the Dow Jones and I would expect this
out-performance to continue for the next few years until 'gold
currency' holders will be able to buy one Dow Jones with just one ounce
of gold.
"Now, you may think that I have become insane (but) I am
convinced that the US Fed's monetary policies will lead to
exponentially widening wealth inequity and impoverish the majority of
US households, which will then lead to social strife, protectionism,
war, and the breakdown of the capitalistic system.
"However, if one considers that in 1932 and in 1980 one could
indeed buy one Dow Jones Industrial Average with just one ounce of
gold, then maybe my views are rather conservative. Possibly one will be
able to buy, sometime in future, one Dow Jones with just half an ounce
of gold!"
With that in mind, Farber believes we could be in store for a lot more than just $1,000 gold.
o In 1980 Dollars, Gold is Just Half-Price.
John Hathaway, managing director of Tocqueville Asset Management,
believes $1,000 gold isn't far off. "I don't think it will take much.
Let's not forget, in 1980 dollars, gold is less than half of its
nominal price today.
"The disparity between the amount of paper
that has been created since 1980 and the amount of gold that has been
produced since then is just enormous. The ratio of financial assets to
physical gold is at the low end of a historical range. If you were to
mark all the gold to market that has ever been mined, which is a very
conservative approach, and then take the valuation of all the global
stock markets and all the global bond markets, gold represents about
3%, compared with a figure in the mid-20% range in 1980, which was the
top of the bull market in gold and the beginning of the bull market in
financial assets.
"Gold is a good value, certainly, at these
prices, just based on the considerations we've discussed. Even if you
don't think worst-case outcomes are in the cards, gold is still rare
and hard to find, and believe me, these companies are having the
toughest times trying to maintain production, much less build it."
o Central Banks Abandon Control of Gold.
Two Citigroup metals analysts wrote that central banks faced a choice
between a global recession and their continuing "control" of gold.
They chose to focus on staving off global recession.
"We
believe that the policy resolution to the credit crunch will take the
form of a massive, extended 'reflationary rescue' in a new cycle of
global credit creation and competitive currency devaluation which could
take gold to $1,000/oz or higher."
o Slashing Interest Rates Will Only Add Fuel to the Fire.
Analyst John Ing believes $1,000 gold is just on the horizon. His
reasoning? Bankers are out of bullets when it comes to settling U.S.
debt battles.
"Ironically, while there is a crisis of confidence
in the credit markets, the world is awash in liquidity due to the
gargantuan current account surpluses of China and other Asian countries
as well as the Middle-East," Ing wrote. "The problem however, is not
the supply of surpluses, but the imbalance between the short term and
long term obligations of the world's biggest debtor and the United
States."
"As long as there is a lack of confidence in the short
term, central banks are faced with the dilemma as to how to supply
liquidity. Today, central banks continue to boost money supply but the
monetary aggregates were already growing at double-digit levels and
they had little room to maneuver. What is likely then is a dramatic
reduction in interest rates, which will serve as a short term
palliative. But this will not correct the imbalances. Central banks
have tried to stabilize the global financial system by pumping large
amounts of liquidity into the markets. To date, they have only
addressed the symptoms of the underlying crisis. The situation will
become even worse."
o "Gold Is the Purist Play Against the Dollar."
When the former head of technical research at Citigroup predicts gold
is heading not to $1,000, but to $3,000, it makes great sense to pay
attention.
"Gold is the purest play against the dollar," Louise
Yamada, managing director of Yamada Technical Research Advisors said.
She predicted gold would surpass $730 on its way to $3,000 inside of a
decade.
o "Still Cheap Relative to Oil or Base Metals." Australia's
Fat Prophets newsletter is another prominent member of the $1,000 gold fan club.
"We
think the price could reach $850 an ounce by the end of the year, based
on issues in the US housing market," senior equities analyst Greg
Canavan says. "US housing was an accident waiting to happen. We have
also been forecasting an eventual price of $1000, and we would expect
that in the first half of 2008.
"In the US, we expect further
interest rate cuts. In Europe, the euro is getting stronger, with
implications for exports. It could lead to a slowdown there," he went
on to say. "Also in Europe, the Bank of England had said it would not
be bailing out lenders. But now it has been told that it must do so. So
investors are seeing that gold is a fundamental store of wealth."
Canavan
added, "You should have 10 per cent of your portfolio in bullion or
gold stocks. Also, it is considerably undervalued right now so it is
more than just insurance. Despite being at more than 20-year highs it
is still cheap relative to oil or base metals."
o World Currencies "Becoming Increasingly Doubted." James Turk in his
Freemarket Gold & Money Report believes $1,500 gold is possible.
"A
blow-off leg in gold is looking increasingly likely once it clears
$1,000. Think about this a moment. The US dollar is now trading at
record lows, with no bottom in sight. Commodity prices are soaring,
with wheat at over $9 per bushel and crude oil looking increasingly
well supported over $80 per barrel. Gold is rising against all the
world's currencies, indicating that fiat national currencies backed by
nothing but promises from over-indebted governments are becoming
increasingly doubted. Britain just experienced the world's biggest bank
run since the 1930s. ... We should be mentally prepared for the
possibility that gold exceeds $1,000 within the next few months, and
then just keeps climbing to a blow-off high.
"How high? A
doubling of the gold price has happened before in blow-offs like the
one I am describing, so $1,500 or more is not out of the question."
So...where
are you with your investments? Are you overly reliant on those
worrisome "paper" investments at a time when more and more people want
to hold something of authentic value in their hands? If that's the case
- and even if you've never joined a fan club your entire life - today
may be the perfect time to become a member of the $1,000 gold fan club.
You've
seen him on Fox News Television and heard him on the Rush Limbaugh
Show. He's a published author, writer and an expert guest on more than
1000 radio programs discussing today's economy and gold.
Kevin
DeMeritt, President of Lear Financial, is a nationally renowned analyst
whose insight into the future of domestic and global economies is
unmatched.
His book, The Bulls The Bears and the Bust, reviewed
by the Associated Press, predicted the market crash of 2001 and the
ensuing rise of gold to the status of best investment.
At the
helm of Lear Financial, Kevin DeMeritt has made Lear one of the most
highly endorsed gold companies in the country. Relying on his
insightful recommendations, uncanny market and trading skills and 20
years of experience in investment quality gold, Kevin has navigated
thousands of portfolios to profitability through boom and bust times.
And, now more than ever, his insights are welcome by nervous investors.